Consistency is vitally important in head-to-head fantasy football leagues, yet very few fantasy owners even try to factor it into their rankings or draft-day decision making. If you have been playing fantasy for any length of time, then you know how frustrating it can be for your quarterback to score 30-plus points one week and 10 the next. How many times have you been one of the highest scoring teams in the league only to miss the playoffs by one or two games?
Many will call it “bad luck,” and that’s partially true. Injuries to key players, inclement weather, and tough matchups are all variables that can negatively impact fantasy teams. You can only do so much to control or combat them. However, there is one aspect of fantasy football that you have some influence over — the consistency of your team.
The tools section of BigGuyFantasySports.com has a “Clutch Report” that will calculate the “Clutch Factor” (CF) that a player must exceed each week to earn a “Clutch Game.” The CF is based on the number of teams in your league and the scoring method. For example, in a 12-team PPR format, a running back must earn over 11 fantasy points each week to earn a “Clutch Game.”
The more consistent a player is, the more valuable they are to their fantasy team. You can figure out how consistent a player is at my website (BigGuyFantasySports.com). A player’s consistency rate is referred to as “Clutch Rating” (CR). A highly consistent fantasy player will have a CR of more than 70 percent. The elite studs of the fantasy world will normally be over 80-90 percent.
Every year, I try to identify undervalued players who might not be highly ranked in total fantasy points but were very consistent and crucial to a fantasy team’s success. In addition, I identify overvalued players based on their lack of consistency. Here’s a sneak peak at my consistency ratings for QBs heading into the 2021 season.
2021 Fantasy QB Consistency Ratings, Rankings
A ranking of QB1A means I expect that player to earn an 80 percent or higher CR in 2021. Currently, only Patrick Mahomes is ranked at that level. The remaining 11 quarterbacks are all ranked as QB1B. This means I expect them to exceed a CR of 70 percent or higher. Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers all have to potential to exceed 80 percent in 2021, but I believe they will be closer to 75 percent this year. The key is where they fall in your draft. If you can get any of these four after Round 5, then grab them! If they go before that, wait and grab one of the other seven quarterbacks.
Let’s look at a couple of these quarterbacks and see which of them are undervalued or overvalued based on their current ADPs.
Undervalued: Tom Brady, Buccaneers
The alien life-form that is Brady is once again not getting as much love as he should from the fantasy world. All he did last season was rank seventh in total points and 10th in consistency. Now, take out the injuries and look at his consistency when both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were on the field together and he’s at 75 percent, which would have ranked him tied for third overall. He’s going in Round 7 right now. So, load up on backs and receivers early and grab Brady in Round 7 or 8 and get a QB you never have to worry about.
Overvalued: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Tua didn’t exactly burst onto the scene with fireworks and glitter last season. It was more like glitter and finger paints. The Dolphins let Ryan Fitzpatrick walk and gave the reigns to Tua for 2021. However, they also flirted with trading for Deshaun Watson and signed Jacoby Brissett in the offseason. So, how long is the leash? The Dolphins signed Will Fuller V and drafted Jaylen Waddle, so the receiving corps is improved, but I’m not overly optimistic here. Many view Tua as a high-upside backup, but his consistency numbers suggest he’ll be more like the QB30.
In summary, consistency should be an important part of your fantasy draft prep every year. It’s great to draft players who earn a ton of total points, but if they don’t do it consistently, you might still wind up below .500. You can’t win a championship if you don’t even make the postseason.
If you want more consistency reports from your draft prep, go to Amazon and pick up the award-winning 2021 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide. You can also follow me on Twitter @bob_lung.
Don’t miss out on the 2021 Fantasy Football Expo on Sunday, Aug. 15, 2021, in Canton, Ohio! Go to The Fantasy Football Expo for tickets!