Republicans have control over redistricting, the once-every-decade allocation of congressional districts based on the Census, in 18 states. Among the Republican states are three that have increased in population enough to potentially gain new seats—Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. “I would say that the national vote could be the same as this year two years from now, and redistricting by itself would easily be enough to alter who controls the chamber,” said Samuel S. Wang, the director of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. He thinks there are three new seats for Republicans in those states, and gerrymandering could give them another five, by carving up districts in Georgia and North Carolina and Florida.
One potential challenge for Republicans, though, is carving out those suburbs that they’ve relied on for so long. Demographics and voting trends argue against them in Texas and Florida where the population growth is in communities of color and in the suburbs. Kelly Ward Burton, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee argues that those factors will likely limit the number of seats Republicans can craft for themselves. “Their ability to manipulate the map to the tune of 30 seats like they did last time is no longer on the table. […] If the map plays out fairly, we will end up with more competitive seats than we have now.” There’s one word doing a lot of work there: “fairly.” That’s never going to be something Republicans are interested in.
The other problem Republicans will face though is that they’ve become the party of Trump and QAnon and they’ll face that reckoning between now and November 2022. They’re feeling the sharp tip of that coming spike now in dealing with the dangerous threat that is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.