Conference Championship weekend presents one of our last chances to play (daily) fantasy football this year, and with the stakes higher than ever in real life, it’s the perfect time to put together an NFL DFS lineup and take home some cash. It’s not easy considering we’re down to the best of the best, but with elite offensive options on every team, the potential stud picks and value sleepers for this two-game slate seem limitless.
Of course, that’s not true — they’re very limited, especially once you factor in prices. You can’t have all the superstars, but you can still pick and choose quite a few. (And we actually outline below a way to get the four top pass-catchers into your lineup.) Our lineup starts with a riskier-than-usual Chiefs stack, but we have players from every team, with the Buccaneers being the least represented.
Conference Championship DraftKings Picks: NFL DFS tournament playoff lineup
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. Bills ($7,600). Mahomes is $700 more than Josh Allen, $1,100 more than Aaron Rodgers, and $1,500 more than Tom Brady, but he also has the highest ceiling — which is really saying something considering how good all four QBs still playing are. It’s fair to worry about Mahomes’s foot injury, which could limit his mobility and rushing ability, but he’s still the best bet to throw for 300-plus yards and get that three-point bonus. Technically the Chiefs give up more fantasy points to QBs because of the TDs they allowed during the regular season, but Buffalo is still top 10 in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks. It’s definitely a risk to use Mahomes, but that might mean he’s lower owned than usual.
RB: Devin Singletary, Bills @ Chiefs ($4,500). We thought Singletary was a trap last week, and sure enough, he had just 10 touches for 37 total yards. We’re still leery of him this week, but the matchup is much better and Singletary’s price is much more appealing. He’s the second cheapest RB who you can count on for significant touches, and in a week where there are no obvious backs to use, you might as well pay down and hope for either a short TD or a bunch of catches.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DFS LINEUP: FanDuel
RB: Jamaal Williams, Packers vs. Buccaneers ($4,400). Williams is the only back cheaper than Singletary who could realistically get 10-plus touches, and given that he was a yard away from scoring last week and has proven to be a capable pass-catcher, he could easily pay off his price despite the tough matchup. We have enough in our budget to afford to Ronald Jones ($4,600), who has more touchdown upside, but Williams figures to be lower owned, so we’ll take the chance with him.
WR: Davante Adams, Packers vs. Buccaneers ($8,000). There’s better value with Stefon Diggs, who’s $1,000 cheaper and just as likely to rack up catches and even more likely to hit 100-plus yards — both of which are more important DraftKings — but Adams has a better matchup and is even more likely to score.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. Bills ($7,200). Once again, Diggs is a slightly better value, but Hill is the highest ceiling of any non-QB this week. He’s much more than just a big-play guy, though, shown by his double-digit targets in six of his past eight games. With Mahomes as our QB, it only makes sense to stack him with his two best weapons, so we’re going all-in on the Chiefs offense.
WR: Gabriel Davis, Bills @ Chiefs ($3,500). Davis (ankle) is in danger of missing this game, and if he’s out, it might cause multiple pivots in our lineup. The easy thing would just be to swap him with Scotty Miller ($3,400), but that would also make us want to pivot from Cameron Brate at flex. If Davis plays, we like his chances with Cole Beasley (knee) banged up. He failed to catch a pass last week (just like Beasley), but Davis’s big-play ability gives him a lot of upside in tournament lineups.
TE: Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. Bills ($8,000). The big choice for us was whether to pay up for Kelce, who’s $3,400 than the second highest-priced TE, Robert Tonyan, or go with Diggs instead of Davis. If we did that, we’d play Tonyan at TE and either Cole Beasley ($4,100) or Scotty Miler ($3,400) at flex. There’s certainly a case to be made that’s a better lineup, but, again, with Mahomes as our QB, we’re going all-in on the Chiefs. Kelce is by far the best TE with by a highly favorable matchup. He’ll be chalky, but for good reason.
If you’re wondering, there is a way to get Adams, Hill, Diggs, and Kelce in your lineup, but it basically requires you to play Tom Brady ($6,100) at QB, the Bucs D/ST ($2,700), AJ Dillon ($4,000) at RB (along with Devin Singletary or someone cheaper), and a one-catch, TD-or-bust guy like Marcedes Lewis ($2,500), Ricky Seals-Jones ($2,500), Tanner Hudson ($2,500), or Lee Smith/Reggie Gilliam ($2,500) at flex. Honestly, that’s not the worst lineup considering Brady has plenty of upside, the Bucs D/ST could just as easily make a big play as any other D/STs this week, and Dillon is a tough runner, particularly in short-yardage/goal-line situations, who had six carries last week. You might have one or two zeroes with that lineup, but the combination of those four pass-catchers will be monstrous, especially if Brady and Singletary have solid games.
FLEX: Cameron Brate, Buccaneers @ Packers ($3,000). We have to go cheap here, but Brate actually seems like a value given the eight catches and 11 targets he’s had the past two games. We could also afford Rob Gronkowski ($3,200), who is more likely to score, Isaiah McKenzie ($3,100), who has more big-play upside, or Tyler Johnson ($3,000), who becomes much more interesting if Antonio Brown (quad) is out, but Brate seems like the highest-floor player and a potential red-zone target who will be low owned.
D/ST: Packers vs. Buccaneers ($3,600). We could save money by going cheaper — and, like we said, any of the four defenses could have the best day since they’re all facing elite offenses — but we’ll go with the narrative that Tom Brady could struggle in the cold, potentially snowy weather.